Ideas Weave Every Narrative with AI.
The era of secular stagnation—our comfortable decade of low growth and low rates—is officially dead. Murdered by AI, reshoring, and massive fiscal deficits, we are entering a volatile new regime. But this isn’t a smooth utopian boom; it’s a chaotic transition from a demand-constrained to a supply-constrained world that will blindside anyone clinging to the old normal.
Japan’s 30-year bond yields hit a 30-year high, signaling that the Bank of Japan can no longer suppress the math of sovereign debt. This is a global canary in the coal mine: the same debt trap awaits the U.S. and other developed economies, and the spillover could crash your retirement portfolio.
AI is moving from stock trading to the much larger, less transparent bond market—where it promises efficiency but risks creating hidden systemic vulnerabilities that could crash pensions, mortgages, and government debt. The problem: bond markets lack the data and safeguards that exist for stocks, making them a perfect breeding ground for algorithmic flash crashes with no circuit breakers.
Bond traders bought SpaceX debt thinking it was safe. They’re now facing steep losses—and the real story is about a broken market that applies equity-risk models to debt. The firewall between bonds and venture capital has collapsed.