Your ‘Smart’ Prediction Bot Is Losing to a Coin Flip. Here’s Why You’re Still Making Money.
We build sophisticated prediction bots to parse data and find an edge. But when scored by the Brier metric, one Kalshi bot was actually worse than a coin flip. Profitability is a liar—it hides the fact that your ‘smart’ system is actively miscalibrated. Stop trusting P&L and start checking your math.