Schadenfreude

The AI Prophet Who Could See the Future โ€” But Couldn’t See the Cliff

Leopold Aschenbrenner correctly predicted AI’s exponential future โ€” then raised $45 billion for a hedge fund and lost most of it in days. His “situational awareness” about AI was real. His situational awareness about leverage, liquidity, and counterparty dynamics was nonexistent. Domain genius doesn’t transfer. The market doesn’t reward prophecy โ€” it rewards survival, and survival is a completely different skill from prediction.