Probability

Probability Is a Lie. The Universe Is Already Decided.

📅 August 29, 2026 📂 AI & Machine Learning

Probability is the most reliable tool we have for predicting the future, but it isn’t real. From Laplace’s deterministic clockwork universe to the Many-Worlds interpretation of quantum mechanics, probability is not an objective physical property. It is a subjective illusion, born entirely from our inability to self-locate within a deterministic multiverse.

Abstraction Absurdity Academia Probability Quantum Mechanics

Your Model Is Better Than the Bookies. So Why Are You Still Losing?

📅 July 24, 2026 📂 AI & Machine Learning

A football predictor that outperforms the bookies’ implied probability still loses money. The reason? Bookies set odds to balance risk, not to reflect true outcomes. The vig and market dynamics mean better accuracy isn’t enough — you need to overcome the built-in tax that turns technical victories into financial losses.

Betting Bookies Data Science Market Mechanics Prediction Probability Sports Analytics Vig