You know that feeling. The rush when you realize you’re in on something before the crowd. The quiet satisfaction of being early. Then someone sends you a quiz — “We are still early” — and you take it. You get a result that says: yes, you’re early. And you feel validated.
But here’s the truth: that quiz is not measuring reality. It’s manufacturing a belief.
The moment you take the quiz, you stop being early and start being played.
Steven Moody’s little experiment at early.stevenmoody.com is a perfect case study in how viral tech culture works. It takes the familiar adoption-curve graph — the S-curve that supposedly separates innovators from laggards — and turns it into a personal identity test. You answer a few questions, and the algorithm tells you where you stand. Early majority? Late majority? Innovator? Congratulations, you’re early.
It’s a genius move. The quiz makes an abstract narrative feel like a measurable fact. You’re not just hoping you’re ahead of the curve; you have proof. A screenshot you can send to a friend. A badge of belonging.
But here’s the twist: the quiz promises insider scarcity while being mass-distributed by design. The act of taking the quiz instantly dilutes the very exclusivity it claims to confer. If everyone is early, no one is.
Early is not a score. It’s a story. And you’re not the author — you’re the audience.
Most people miss that “early” depends entirely on which graph you choose. The adoption curve is a model, not a law. Pick a different starting point, a different technology, a different timeframe, and your position flips. The quiz doesn’t tell you that. It just gives you the graph that makes you feel good.
This is not a harmless fun quiz. It’s a self-fulfilling belief engine. By taking it, you sign up for a narrative that says “we’re still early” — which means you’re more likely to invest time, money, and attention in whatever trend the quiz is tied to. You become a walking advertisement for the idea that the hype is justified.
And it works. Look at the comments: “Just found this, sent by a friend.” That’s the virus spreading. The quiz is the perfect recruitment tool for a worldview that demands believers, not skeptics.
So the next time you see that quiz, ask yourself: Who benefits from you believing you’re early? The answer is never you. It’s the people who need you to keep the hype alive.
Don’t let a quiz tell you where you stand. Look at the curve yourself — and decide if you’re early, or just early to the party that’s already over.
FAQ
Q: What would a skeptic say about this article?
A: A skeptic might argue that the quiz is just a harmless bit of fun, not a conspiracy. But the problem is its effect: it reinforces a narrative that benefits hype-makers, not users. The quiz itself may be innocent, but its viral mechanics are a textbook example of belief engineering.
Q: What's the practical takeaway for someone who sees this quiz?
A: Don't outsource your position on the adoption curve to a quiz. Instead, look at the actual data: user numbers, revenue growth, network effects. If the only evidence you have is a quiz result, you're not early — you're just being recruited.
Q: Isn't believing you're early just a motivational tool?
A: Believing you're early can be motivating, but it can also blind you to real risks. The difference between genuine early adoption and delusion is whether your belief is based on evidence or on a feel-good quiz. The quiz is designed to make you feel smart, not to make you informed.